Independence Day

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:00 am

I entirely agree with the comments expressed and I have in fact changed my views on all this (doesn't happen very often!).

But I am dismayed by the details of the "deal" as they are gradually being released for scrutiny and it really looks like a very bad and one-sided agreement. No decisions on the Irish border or on future trade arrangements, the French are pressing for current fishing rights in British waters to continue, we will be locked into EU laws and trading rules for several years to come .. what exactly is the UK getting out of it, except for some minor concessions on immigration?

I do think that May is completely misguided - feeling maybe that she is in too weak a position at home to be able to tough it out with EU, but could she possibly be doing a better job of disuniting and antagonising much of the country?

Boris Johnson is controversial and unpredictable but .. he does atleast stick staunchly to his principles, has the absolute drive necessary to confront and dent the EU's arrogance and atleast a large section of the population would follow him.

Can May count on any really loyal and sincere supporters for her rather cringing dealings with the EU? A few left in the cabinet, perhaps they are too nervous to jump ship until it actually hits the rocks!

As CBE said, we have the perfect right to just leave, tear up all previous agreements (I know that Hitler and Mussolini aren't quite the right examples!) and just go our own way. It will be perfectly possible for new trading and other agreements to be argued out over subsequent years - and without the Sword of Damocles being wielded if we don't say or do what the EU likes.

cbe
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Re: Independence Day

Postby cbe » Tue Nov 27, 2018 6:42 pm

The problem we have is that our politicians are career politicians, many of them without any experience after university, except maybe for a stint in a Trade Union or as a SPAD. Their interest is in themselves - we see now cabinet members jockeying for position ready for Mrs May's fall, which is growing ever closer, their interest in Brexit is secondary to their own personal ambitions. I don't think that there are more than a couple of dozen out of the 650 worth a candle.

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Richard
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Re: Independence Day

Postby Richard » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:11 am

Brexit was intended to be a matter for the British people to decide, set up by D. Cameron in order to lead the Tory Party into power and against a backdrop of hard-line Tory Rebels who threatened to cause trouble.
Mrs May will travel to Scotland for a day of campaigning on Wednesday as she appeals over the heads of MP's for ordinary voters to support her current plan. I think she has visited Wales and N. Ireland also.
But the people have had their say and it is Parliament who will next vote for, or against, the latest 'Deal'.
The only way the people can have the final say, on what has developed since, is by holding another vote, perhaps that is what T. May has foreseen and she is being 'canny' ahead of that possibility?
Meanwhile, parliament will vote yes or no on the matter shortly and then we will be in uncharted territory.
I agree that many MP's are no longer 'top-drawer' people and have been shown to be in the job for personal gain (for example, the expenses scandal) and that 'corruption' is just current reality and it is even worse world-wide.

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:16 am

Not sure what a SPAD is but it sounds about right for the shortsighted, dumb lot of MPs we currently have! There is nothing necessarily wrong of course with being a career politician but what seems to be lacking is the sense of morality and purpose which atleast some politicians had in the past. Think of the dedicated Labour politicians who set up the welfare state after the war and, even after the 1951 election, the Tories continued with the reform process which had been set in motion. Not many noble aims in view currently.

Hard to see where this Brexit battle will go. I don't see how an election or repeat referendum will in itself resolve the central issues. What is needed is a strongminded leader willing to argue with Brussels, not concede a deal which May is effectively saying is "the best we can hope for". Atleast there is some real political debate happening for a change, instead of leaders patronising the voters and just making the usual bland and fanciful promises about their supposed intentions.

cbe
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Re: Independence Day

Postby cbe » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:33 pm

Richard, may I suggest that you change 'canny' into 'duplicitious' so that I am able partly to agree with you. Seahermit. sorry a Spad is a SPecial ADvisor to MPs - gofers is a more accurate term.
They start out that way and then get onto 'the list' and eventually become MPs. Career politicians by definition have no experience outside politics - not sure how that can help them understand the needs and desires of the electorate

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Richard
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Re: Independence Day

Postby Richard » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:04 pm

Hi cbe,

Of course T. May is duplicitous - she isn't willing to let Parliament see the full legal advice on the Brexit deal before the vote scheduled for Tuesday, December 11.
If she loses that crucial vote in Parliament then her position becomes untenable, she will have to either resign as PM or face the consequences of a no confidence vote.

Parliament's rejection of the deal will mean that a 'Plan B' has to be arranged, whoever is in power and they will soon have to ask for an extension on the current EU Brexit deadline in March next year, as further plans/negotiations take time to arrange, as we know.

We live in interesting times!
:)

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Richard
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Re: Independence Day

Postby Richard » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:30 am

T. May is set to bargain further from the EU - to seek concessions (as a soon-to-be non-member) re- the Irish Border.
This strategy cannot be described as anything but naive.
To come out of the EU but still to have concessions over anything would seem a paradox, how can we be out but still in with concessions which adds up to the fact that we are not out except in name only.

Out but still in makes no sense to me - bullshit baffles brains!

northants1066
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Re: Independence Day

Postby northants1066 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:02 pm

I have never taken part in a demo or protest movement in all my 71 years. BUT that day is surely looming. Leavers have let democracy take its course whilst Remoaners have used every means at their disposal to get all the headlines over the past 30 months and reverse the decision that 17.4 million citizens voted for.

Following the example of the French is rather extreme but I do worry that the so far silent majority will rise up and cause civil disobedience not seen since the Poll Tax days.

Yesterday I attended a lunch with my former workmates with almost 100 people present. Almost to a man and woman they supported T Mays proposal and want to see an end to all this bickering.

It is time our MP's had another look at the referendum result in their own constituency and voted accordingly.

Does anyone know how many of the 650 parliamentary constituencies voted Leave?

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:36 am

I agree with all of this. The EU have proved arrogant and unmoving during the negotiations and the result is less of a "deal" than a capitulation by the UK Government to the terms imposed by the EU. I have sympathy with Theresa May who is fighting from an impossible position, but it is extremely naive to think that merely going back to Brussels and arguing is going to produce any change of attitude. We should just declare our intention of leaving the EU soon and whatever the circumstances .. and get out. There will inevitably be consequences for some time with trade etc. but it is not conceivable that new trade, travel, legal agreements cannot be hammered together eventually.

The long rear-guard action by the Remainers to block and prevent Brexit makes me very angry too - the majority in favour of Brexit was not huge but it was decisive and the product of a democratic national vote. It should be respected as the result of every General Election is respected.

I cannot recall the actual numbers of constituencies voting for Leave/Remain but Remainers were concentrated heavily in the wealthier metropolitan areas, where also the large international corporations are based. Leavers largely came from traditional old industrial areas, small towns, deprived areas. Big business and the CBI were in favour of remaining. Small and medium companies who have been struggling under austerity for years were stoutly for leaving the EU with all its restrictions and unfairness.

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Richard
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Re: Independence Day

Postby Richard » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:02 pm

Local authorities weren’t ever required to publish the results by Parliamentary constituency or by ward.
According to one set of statistics, 401 out of 632 MPs represent constituencies which voted for Brexit in the referendum.
The number equates to 63 per cent of constituencies but the results of the referendum were not announced according to Westminster constituencies, but by local authority area.

Northern Ireland, however, was one counting area, but also published the results of the referendum for each of its 18 constituencies.
Birmingham City Council, counted the vote and published the results by ward and Parliamentary constituency.
On the whole, however, we can only use statistical estimates, as an indirect way of estimating what the results by constituency may have been.


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