Brexit

[seahermit]

I can see the Brexit rollercoaster being predicted by the ardent Remainers, but a lot of that was rubbish and hopefully remains so.

Despite the move towards Brexit three years ago, the economy in many ways is healthier than it was before and a lot of the doom-mongering was pure speculation. It has all been gone through and trashed! As Richard said, there will always be a desire for trade and new ways will be found.

[cbe]

Remainers are DESPERATE for Brexit to be a failure. I think their feelings are just the same as self-harm.
Brexit (there is NO hard or soft) and watch the economy fly. There will be no more than a month or two of turbulence, whilst Remainers and the EU try to make things difficult but Remainers will be silenced by our success and the EU will panic when they say what a mess they are in.

[Richard]

I'm slightly confused.
Are we really getting a hard Brexit since negotiations must continue?
The UK will formally leave the EU on 31 January with a withdrawal deal, not without one and negotiations must continue until the end of 2020.
Tell me where I am going wrong.

[cbe]

The story we are led to believe is that we leave at 11pm this Friday but that we are in transition for the rest of the year whilst deals are hammered out.

[seahermit]

As I see it, a hard Brexit basically meant leaving with little or no agreement in place. All history now because negotiations will in fact continue for another year.

What happens if agreement is not reached on some issues during that time? Do we still walk away? I suppose I should know more of the details, but it has all become very tedious!

[cbe]

Yes. I am always puzzled by 'walk away', we will trade with any nation that wishes to trade with us. If a Country's government puts up harsh conditions then we will not be able to trade with them. This works both ways and there is a massive trade imbalance with us buying much, much more from the rest of the EU than they buy from us so some pain would ensue should difficult conditions be reciprocated.

[Richard]

For certain goods/medical supplies we rely on importing, we either agree to pay more on the new higher tariffs from the EU, or else hope to import cheaper stuff from outside sources, further afield - if readily available.
If we are no longer in the rather expensive EU 'Club' then we have to weigh up the overall advantages and disadvantages, and naturally some sectors will come out better or worse off.
We will not necessarily be able to walk away to avoid higher costs just by refusing to trade on vital goods.

[cbe]

There is that 'walk away' phrase again. I have said that we will buy from whomever we wish. IF the EU put tariffs and onerous regulations on certain products which make them dearer (in every sense) than from another part of the world they will lose our custom. We all seem to forget that businesses trade with businesses - all Governments do is get in the way. Businesses have the power to influence their Government. Keep your eye on Germany, who have just reported massive falls in their exports for the last year, particularly with the UK. Imagine the reaction of German businesses to their Government 'forcing; the UK to look for alternative markets.

[Richard]

Exactly, there will be no hard Brexit.
A hard Brexit would be a disaster that would put tens of thousands of companies and hundreds of thousands of workers on both sides of the English Channel in great difficulty in Europe.
There will be deals done to prop up the German manufacturing economy as, despite a recession in that country as a result of world-wide pressures, the U.K. is an important trading partner.
Assuming WTO rules were in place, a report estimates that Germany would have to pay on average 4.3 percent more for exports to the UK.

[seahermit]

This has all been very illuminating and I appreciate what others have posted. Wouldn't it be nice if there was more calm and interesting analysis in the newspapers, instead of screaming, sensationalist headlines according to particular political persuasions?! Maybe I'm not reading the right newspapers ..

I love "all Governments do is get in the way"! Indeed, but they do (sometimes) regulate those businesses whose sole aim is to, by illicit means, relieve the punters of their hard-earned shekels ..

There has been a lot of talk about Germany's floundering economy, other European countries to a lesser extent. The overall reason surely has to be the flood of goods, often of poor quality, from China. Will that ever change? I used to buy German tools years ago, still have one or two of them incredibly. And their audio/radio/stereo equipment was also the best. Sad that has all largely gone.