Independence Day

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:39 pm

That's exactly it. To be fair, Theresa May did not have much room to manoevre (sorry, in many years never been able to get that word right!) and the package which she arrived at was probably the best compromise to avoid a no-deal crisis. But .. many seem to be wondering if the latter prospect would be such a bad thing, if taking a tougher stance towards the EU might not produce more conciliation and a more sensible (from our point of view) solution.

Looks as if they are going to be slugging it out for a while longer ,.. Even if there is eventually a challenge to May's leadership, I can't see Boris Johnson securing majority support amongst the Tories. He is too controversial and unpredictable, one of the reasons May has lasted so long despite being almost written off several times by political commentators is that she is atleast a calm and shrewd operator, somehow managing to hold together most of the differing factions. For now.

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Richard
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Re: Independence Day

Postby Richard » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:32 pm

We don't know what other fudges will crawl out of the woodwork if we agree to the trading fudge being cooked up by T. May, it sounds like we will become the EU tax collector, as Gove opined and it is likely that many other agreements / arrangements could be difficult to sever entirely or take many years to transition.
For trading we could come out of the EU via a hard Brexit, but still trade with the EU under EFTA rules as Norway and Switzerland can do, but as we are still negotiating with the EU they may have other opinions or offers to table.
There would still be some cherry-picking or areas of mutual co-operation, as the UK will almost certainly be involved in terrorist tracking and sharing of information, cyber crime etcetera.
To trade on WTO terms outside the EU may take years to negotiate but of course we will have to keep some sort of trading continuity with the EU in the meantime, or always.

In short, I don't think a hard Brexit is possible, in all reality, and in any case it is far more complex than anyone thought when they voted leave or remain.
We stand to lose a lot of manufacturing business, where foreign owners can build bases here and sell goods to the EU members because we are part of the EU. That may be countered to some extent by the UK trading more with other overseas countries that were previously penalised by high EU tariffs as they had no manufacturing bases here.
Large Banks or financial institutions are already departing.

I don't know who has run the slide-rule over all the ins and outs of negatives and positives of the above but presumably the millionaire financier Jacob Rees-Mogg is convinced that we will not all be in a lifeboat for ever after!

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Richard
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Re: Independence Day

Postby Richard » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:35 pm

Another reason why a 'hard Brexit' is probably an outdated and unrealistic notion is that, since we joined the EU, the internet has developed to the extent that companies in the UK can now use cheap labour (relatively speaking) from countries such as Romania to provide (for example) payroll data-processing capabilities that would not previously have been possible without either UK companies having a base in Romania or by bringing Romanians to this country.
It can all be done over the internet without immigration being necessary.

Non-human commodities may well be another matter and probably always will be...

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:04 pm

No, I don't think that a hard Brexit is actually possible - even if we do initially leave the EU without a proper deal in place, inevitably our fortunes are tied up with the rest of the world and with the EU. There will have to be a series of negotiated trade deals with the EU in the following years and the eventual outcome may very well be not so far removed from the compromising package so far on the table.

What many are against is merely allowing our trading laws and regs to be largely dictated by the EU, as opposed to being in control of those areas ourselves and deciding which EU laws to follow and mirror in our own trading practices. How to achieve that is for politicians and economists .. far too complex for me!

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Richard
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Re: Independence Day

Postby Richard » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:27 pm

I'm reviewing the situation...
The EU clearly do not want us to leave and are trying to put every obstacle possible in place to prolong/thwart the process, it is like a relationship that is hard to finish.
We want closure but the EU do not.
If the discussion and process is too difficult for an educated person to elucidate then what chance for the rest of us, who were led to believe that getting our money back is the main objective.
Okay, so getting our trading laws and regs back from the EU is another objective, as well as the prevention of unlimited immigration.
I'm reviewing the situation...
...I think I'd better think it out again!

Apologies to Fagin in Lionel Bart's 'Oliver Twist'.

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:45 pm

Perfect analogy! It is indeed becoming one almighty conundrum and a mess which requires even the greatest of minds to go into a dark. quiet room and try to think his thoughts out clearly. Or maybe beat his against the wall .. Or maybe beat the EU president's head against the wall ..

cbe
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Re: Independence Day

Postby cbe » Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:07 pm

Don't anyone get neurotic but I just wanted to add this:

think.JPG

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:48 am

I'm sure some point is being made here somewhere ..

In any case, I do not get bothered by who is watching, judging, criticising, approving. My actions and pronouncements accord with what I wish to do, say, express, all within the bounds of reasonable sincerity and what I believe to be right. If some persons choose to find fault or see offence where neither was intended, it may be that their problem is one of limited perception.

cbe
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Re: Independence Day

Postby cbe » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:02 am

It was a joke caption I spotted elsewhere. I added the 'not wanting anyone to get neurotic' bit in the hope that it would be seen as such. I failed.

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seahermit
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Re: Independence Day

Postby seahermit » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:42 am

I'm sorry tbat to me the humour remained inpenetrable! Just thick probably .. definitely somewhat neurotic.


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