Hastings Forum

I have just read an article in MSN News which states that, across the world, many countries are experiencing a slowdown in human population growth. There are several major reasons - urbanised living and changing lifestyles, increasing independence of women, reluctance on the part of both sexes to have large families (or even ANY children), also a worrying decline in fertility. It is claimed that many countries are starting to see the economic impacts of a reduced working population/increased number of elderly people. Notably in Japan and Italy, but also in many other countries, the countryside is becoming littered with abandoned properties (whilst wildlife is moving in and increasing its populations - bears, wolves etc.!), whilst humans are moving into the comforts of increasingly cramped and crowded urban communities.

All this is a total revelation to me. I was aware of course of the continuing drift towards living in the cities, but I had no idea that such changes to the way humans live are suddenly being recognised as an imminent threat, likely to happen in the foreseeable future. No doubt the article is technicolouring the situation somewhat - with the the virus pandemic we know only too well how difficult it is to predict the real course of events even a few years ahead and what natural threats, disasters, wars, pandemics may suddenly emerge and threaten our civilisation. But it is predicted that by the end of the century some countries will see their populations going down by almost half.

Very far from an over-populated planet, half the wildlife killed off, not enough food for humans and the air and the oceans polluted ..! I am struggling to get my head around this dramatic prophetic turn-around for the future of planet Earth.

So far as I know, the forecast is still that countries like India and China will greatly increase their populations over the next few years. But if the longer-term predictions are correct, presumably urbanisation and changing lifestyles will eventually catch up and the whole process will reverse - worldwide population-decline kicking in.

I don't need to worry about it. Unless they come up with a miracle anti-ageing drug, I probably will be in some other place. (Not too hot, hopefully!).

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.
Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same time-frame.
They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.
China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years' time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
The consequences will be a huge number of elderly with insufficient people paying taxes to support the increasing costs of healthcare.

Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to become an increasingly powerful continent on the geopolitical stage as its population rises. Nigeria is projected to be the only country among the world's 10 most populated nations to see its working-age population grow over the course of the century (from 86 million in 2017 to 458 million in 2100), supporting rapid economic growth and its rise in GDP rankings from 23rd place in 2017 to 9th place in 2100.
The distribution of working-age populations will be crucial to whether humanity prospers or withers; in other words migration will become a necessity and not a choice.

I find these predicted population crashes shocking - is this something which the world has suddenly woken up to, or has this been long known about but missing from the headlines? At first sight, what seems to be happening is that Western, developed societies are seeing dramatic changes in lifestyle choices including attitudes to the continuance of traditional families - China, maybe India as well, are a step or two behind but increased industrial "progress" and urbanised living will eventually bring about the same long-term effects.

On the other hand, countries like Nigeria are still going through the "developing" stage, economically and industrial-wise, vastly expanding their populations accordingly - it seems likely that a huge contrast and imbalance will come about between West and East, with great motivation and pressure on populations to migrate across the world.

More trouble ahead than simple plagues, hot summers and flooded winters!

Never turn your back on mother earth!

Elon Musk has just offered $100 millions towards a prize for the best technology that can capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Plants, trees and phytoplankton in the oceans (first place it happened) have been doing this, via photosynthesis, for over 3 billion years.