The Lockdown in Hastings

[Richard]

RE- the distribution of leaflets with offers of help by the council:
Don't forget that any community body or council, wishing to offer assistance, will first have to ensure a system where only bona-fide helpers, with some sort of authority via badge of identity, can be promoted to offer assistance. Even then bogus identity badges may be offered to con the unwitting elderly out of savings, as already happens a lot anyway.
We don't want to put the elderly and vulnerable at even greater risk - who are they to trust indeed?
Sorry to sound cynical but I have seen it all before!

[Richard]

Many more people die globally from ordinary 'seasonal' flu and its complications, (i.e. pneumonia), than from the latest pandemic. The statistics for coronavirus are presented in an alarming manner but we need to keep things in perspective.
Prostate cancer deaths in the UK hit a record high of over 12,000 in 2017, the numbers are still rising, owing to an ageing population.
The coronavirus is certainly serious enough but death rates should not be seen out of context, which is all that the media and government seem to be doing lately.

[seahermit]

The distribution of leaflets (which has happened in some other towns) was just one idea, there are other ways of reaching people. But the point is that the way people access information is very variable and fragmentary these days, many use the internet of course or TV or radio - although I know several people who have neither TV nor the internet and one of those doesn't even listen to the radio, because he finds the news depressing (which it is) and he can't stand music because he is tone deaf!

But those systems don't inform people about what is happening at a local level. I myself find local radio quite superficial - a lot of pop music and some bulletins about fetes and charity events - and apparently amongst listeners there has been a big drift away from local stations and back to national radio.

So, ways have to be found of reaching and informing everybody in a time of crisis such as now and, with modern technology, it is surprising that systems have not long ago been put into place. One or two Government messages have appeared on my mobile phone - brilliant, why can such an idea not be harnessed at a more local level (in collaboration with the mobile network providers) to get useful information to a community?

The difficulties of verifying genuine and appropriately-skilled volunteer workers is a side issue - in London they are building a huge temporary hospital, hoping to get it up and running within just 14 days. It should surely be a simple matter to devise a quick method of checking IDs of potential helpers for an emergency help-scheme.

Coming back briefly to local newspapers, the Hastings Observer is not in any sense a "local" paper. It is owned by a large consortium which controls many local newspapers across the country and that seems to be reflected in the quality of the news coverage. I don't feel that there is much sympathy with the real issues which local people are concerned about and often articles seem to be quite distorted, with sensationalist headlines, and one-sided views represented.

[seahermit]

Re: the relative number of deaths nationally from flu as compared with potential deaths from this virus, it is quite true that there is no fair comparison between the figures. But, as I see it, the worry is the SPEED at which the virus is spreading because of its extreme contagiousness - that means that firstly hospitals will not be able to cope with the sheer numbers requiring treatment at the same time, secondly in consequence many people will die unnecessarily - who otherwise would have benefited from faster responses from the NHS. Sad though the national mortality figures are for prostate cancer, ordinary flu etc., those deaths are unavoidable and the NHS just has to do the best it can. In the case of the virus, there is a LOT which can be done to slow the whole thing down - if people obey the rules and change their behaviour patterns.

[Richard]

I don't believe that seasonal flu is really unavoidable, it's just we have become complacent and accepted it as something you may well catch and then just get on with life. However the good thing about current measures to combat coronavirus is that social distancing and educating of the public, not to cough or sneeze openly in public gatherings/transport, and to wash their hands frequently, should cut the transmission of seasonal flu also.

So, public measures, including 'social distancing' should help a lot all round; as for face-masks there is a risk that hot breath laden with moisture on a fabric, that is often not of clinically effective grade, will create a 'petri-dish' environment with ideal conditions for the virus to multiply and enter the airways of the recipient. Wearing gloves in public may help but it's not at all easy to use 'plastic' for payment or pay by cash wearing even the thin surgical-type gloves available. Checkout staff can't wash hands easily whilst working but they can use gel/foam cleansers.

The media hysteria has made many people too scared to go out and the elderly, with underlying health issues, (already weakened immune systems?) who are by far the largest group in terms of numbers of deaths recorded, are perhaps not getting much support in their homes. As for a council-led service being promoted, via whatever combination of mechanisms, with volunteers delivering essential shopping and med's, there is probably a security issue, cost/planning issue plus an accident liability issue in these days of red-tape and the like, which perhaps explains the reluctance of councils to get involved/take responsibility, and instead let voluntary organisations take the strain.
In ordinary times there is no easy way for the council to allow the able-bodied unemployed to be given jobs such as clearing the streets of litter or removing weeds from the highways, but they are encouraged to work with voluntary organisations. Perhaps those unemployed should be tasked with home food deliveries?

Finally, it appears that for most younger people the latest virus is fairly mild, compared to ordinary seasonal flu, but the elderly, with frail health, are being taken down in alarming numbers and a system of home care has to be implemented as a top priority.

[whiffler]

As I understand it, anyone with CV19 at their time of death is included in the casualty/death rates.

This is one way of monitoring, as it gives a like for like comparison - post-mortems cannot be expected to keep up with what's afoot at the moment.

I did see one account quoting info from Italy where they've had hardly any flu deaths among the elderly, but lots of CV19. I cannot quote you where or when this was (or not) but it could be happening. Again the like for like comparison is important, although maybe not accurate in usual terms.

Good health to all.

[Richard]

That's relevant whiffler, mortality rates should be taken with a large pinch of salt since case fatality rates will fluctuate depending on how widely countries are testing for coronavirus, and who they are testing. If, for instance, as is the case in the UK, you test only the seriously sick people brought into hospital, then your mortality rate will skew high. Potentially hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic and mildly ill patients will go unrecorded.
The UK mortality rates now and in the near future will be artificially high compared to Germany, for example, which is way ahead of the U.K. in terms of conducting up to 160,000 tests each week.
Statistics have not been compared on a like for like basis.

[seahermit]

Walking into town in the evenings is quite a creepy experience. Streets absolutely dead, a few people scurrying about but glaring apprehensively at one another as if the other guy has the plague! No traffic. I half expect bits of tumbleweed to blow in from the desert and roll past the shuttered shops and abandoned buildings.

In daytime it is unsettling in a different way. This virus has become pretty alarming, it seems to be indiscriminate, a number of younger and fit people have died including some children. Why are so many people completely ignoring instructions, walking about in groups, going onto the beach or walking right past you without any attempt to protect themselves (or you) with a scarf etc?

There seems to still be a lot of selfishness about, also the attitude that "it will happen to somebody else but not to me".

[JACK :)]

We are ourselves that......somebody else.

[Richard]

Not sure how effective scarves or masks would be, unless certified to the required standard for hospital use, probably not much.
If you have flu-like symptoms you shouldn't be out and about and if you hope to use one to prevent a spray of droplets from a careless sneeze or cough then the eyes can also be an entry point as well as contamination of the exposed face parts.
Perhaps better still to wear a certified mask and plastic visor as we see in hospitals.
Goggles?
A space-suit hermetically sealed with a supply of oxygen sound ideal.